For more information: http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/no-major-us-hurricane-landfalls-in-nine-years-luck
The U.S. hasn’t experienced the landfall of a Category 3 hurricane or larger since 2005, when Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma all hit the U.S. coast. According to a new NASA study, a string of nine years without a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is Iikely to come along only once every 177 years.
The current nine-year “drought” is the longest period of time that has passed without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. since reliable records began in 1850, said Timothy Hall, a research scientist who studies hurricanes at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York.
The National Hurricane Center calls any Category 3 or more intense hurricane a “major” storm. Hall and colleague Kelly Hereid, who works for ACE Tempest Re, a reinsurance firm based in Connecticut, ran a statistical hurricane model based on a record of Atlantic tropical cyclones from 1950 to 2012 and sea surface temperature data.
The researchers ran 1,000 computer simulations of the period from 1950-2012 – in effect simulating 63,000 separate Atlantic hurricane seasons. They found that a nine-year period without a major landfall is likely to occur once every 177 years on average.
While the study did not delve into the meteorological causes behind this lack of major hurricane landfalls, Hall said it appears it is a result of luck.
Research: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts
Journal: Geophysical Research Letters, May 5, 2015
Link to paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/2015GL063652/full
This video is public domain and can be downloaded at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11870
Like our videos? Subscribe to NASA's Goddard Shorts HD podcast:
Or find NASA Goddard Space Flight Center on Facebook:
Or find us on Twitter:
Tagged under: Hurricanes,Wilma,Katrina,hurricane,storm,major storm,category ,category ,category ,NASA,NASA Goddard,NASA GSFC,United States,disaster,US,weather,chance,probability,statistics,GISS,Timothy Hall,Kelly Hereid,model,statistical model,111mph,Joy Ng
Find more lesson plans like this:Nasal Polyps: Symptoms, Causes & Treatment
Clip makes it super easy to turn any public video into a formative assessment activity in your classroom.
Add multiple choice quizzes, questions and browse hundreds of approved, video lesson ideas for Clip
Make YouTube one of your teaching aids - Works perfectly with lesson micro-teaching plans
1. Students enter a simple code
2. You play the video
3. The students comment
4. You review and reflect
* Whiteboard required for teacher-paced activities
With four apps, each designed around existing classroom activities, Spiral gives you the power to do formative assessment with anything you teach.
Carry out a quickfire formative assessment to see what the whole class is thinking
Create interactive presentations to spark creativity in class
Student teams can create and share collaborative presentations from linked devices
Turn any public video into a live chat with questions and quizzes